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last site update: 1/11/26
  
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News and Analysis (1/11/26)

"Iran’s protest movement has entered a sharper and more dangerous phase, marked by continued street mobilization despite near-total communications blackout, escalating threats from senior officials, and a visibly hardened security posture" ...

... Videos, hospitals, human rights groups, and government reports all testify to escalating violence ... "In his remarks, Trump went further than he has so far and suggested the U.S. could intervene in favor of the protesters regardless of whether the regime uses violence against them" ... ... and his "administration is weighing preliminary options for a potential military strike on Iran, including large-scale airstrikes, though officials stress the planning is routine and no action is imminent" ... ... seemingly in consultation with Israel ... ... and Iran declares it would respond: Israeli war crimes continue:
Three conditions for foreign involvement to strengthen opposition movements: "the presence of domestic organization capable of absorbing outside support, fractures within the security apparatus, and whether external signals reinforced or undermined the movement's domestic legitimacy": “Most of all, I wanted freedom. I’m so scared I won’t get it”: "NetBlocks has described the current blackout as among the most severe ever recorded in Iran. 'We are tracking near-total disconnection of internet service across Iran right now, and connectivity is below 2% of ordinary levels'":
"Reza Pahlavi is not a unifying figure, but remains a symbol of exclusion":
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